Dalhousie University’s agri-food analytics lab predicts food prices to rise 4 % to 6 % in 2026.
REPORT:
Farmers face increased costs while consumers brace for even higher grocery bills in 2026
Farmers Forum staff
OTTAWA — The price of meat and other food will continue to rise in 2026, which may bring a smile to some farmers’ faces, but that’s tempered by possible labour shortages raising on-farm production costs, according to the latest food price report published by Dalhousie University’s agri-food analytics lab.
The 16th annual report warns that food price increases are likely to be “felt all the way along the supply chain, from producers to food manufacturers to consumers.”
Meat prices are predicted to jump another 5 % to 7 % in 2026, following last year’s 7.2 % increase — the highest inflation rate among food categories in the grocery aisle.
“Very rarely have we seen all three main components of the meat trifecta — beef, chicken, and pork — become more expensive at the same time in a single year,” wrote lead author Dr. Sylvain Charlebois.
Food overall was up 3.4 % in 2025 and is projected to rise another 4 % to 6 % in 2026.
Beef led the pack in 2025 with a 9 % increase over 2024. Beef prices in 2025 were up 23 % over the 5-year average, exacerbated by cattle herd numbers at their lowest since 1988. The report doesn’t foresee a reversal of the market trend in 2026: “We don’t see how beef prices could normalize before mid-2027.” Continued imports of Mexican and Australian beef — up 22 % in 2025 — should help to stabilize consumer prices in 2026, according to the report.
In 2025, 86 % of consumers reported eating less meat due to its high price point but only 17 % reported eating more plant-based protein. Some Canadians can’t tighten their belts any further and outright struggle to buy their food: 25.5 % of households are now classified as “food insecure,” according to accompanying 2024 data from the University of Toronto.
The report warns of potential resulting labour shortages in agriculture, even with the sector’s exemption from a recent 10 % cap on the number of low-wage temporary foreign workers in each workplace. This could “increase costs for businesses already operating on tight margins” and see those extra costs passed down the supply chain and to consumers.
American tariffs and Canadian counter-tariffs, which were paid by Canadian consumers before the Carney government largely backed down, also contributed to increased grocery costs in 2025.
The report calculates that a family of four, including a man and a woman with two children between 9 and 18, spent almost $16,577 on food in 2025. For 2026, the same family’s grocery bill will hit just over $17,572 — an increase of almost $995.
