WEATHER FORECAST: Not another grim winter

By Farmers Forum staff
The Weather Network, Accuweather and the Farmers’ Almanac are forecasting a grim, cold, snowy winter but don’t believe it, said Environment Canada’s senior climatologist David Phillips.

Three scary forecasts speak of a “winter from hell and lots of snow,” Phillips said. “They are throwing a dart or spinning a wheel. The truth is no one knows what the winter will be.”

He added that this year looks more uncertain than normal as Pacific waters are neither warm nor cold. Despite that, other indicators point to a more “normal or warmer than normal winter” in Ontario.

He added that winter looks like it will have “normal precipitation” because “there is nothing to suggest otherwise.”

But there is no forecast that you can take to the bank and this year is even more difficult to forecast, he said. “People don’t like that. They want you to declare something. The reality is that there is uncertainty. We live in the second coldest country in the world. We are not cancelling winter. There will be tough moments.”

The polar vortex will likely give us that week of very cold temperatures but don’t expect this winter to be as long or as brutal as last winter, said Phillips, offering a preliminary look ahead of the official Dec. 1 forecast that he stressed was certain to be uncertain. And don’t expect a late spring as there are no strong indicators either way, he said.

He added that while November was cold, don’t let that be your guide. “The seeds of winter are not sown by what happens in November.”