Farmers Forum staff

OTTAWA — Ask a dairy farmer what worries him most and it’s not bird flu, the carbon tax or even our government.

Ontario dairy farmers are most concerned about U.S. President Trump.

Farmers Forum spoke with dairy farmers at the Ottawa Valley Farm Show last month and while their worries vary, they all expressed concern about the influence of U.S. President Donald Trump.

In fact, when asked for their top concern, many were quick with an answer.

“Right now, I think it’s Trump,” said Winchester dairy farmer Peter Rylaarsdam. “He’s all over the place, and people don’t like it. There’s no stability. Terrible. He’s very disappointing. I know he has a lot of good things.”

“Trump,” chimed in Berwick dairy farmer Kevin Elshof. “Trump and the Liberal government are at the top of my list. I can handle the tariffs and carbon tax. It’s out of our control, though.”

President Trump has been very vocal and that makes people nervous. He repeatedly argued that Canada treats U.S. dairy farmers unfairly due to its high tariffs and restrictive trade policies under its supply management system. This system, in place since the 1970s to stabilize revenue streams and avoid bankruptcies, regulates Canada’s dairy, poultry, and egg industries by setting production quotas and imposing steep tariffs on imports. But President Trump says these tariffs are beyond agreed-upon limits.

Trump’s contention, voiced during his first term and reiterated in 2025, centers on the idea that these barriers limit U.S. dairy exports, protecting Canadian farmers at the expense of American ones. He has framed it as an imbalance in trade, accusing Canada of “ripping off” the U.S. by shielding its market while benefiting from access to American consumers. Under the currently-negotiated trade agreement Canada allows a certain volume of U.S. dairy imports tariff-free or at low rates; anything exceeding that quota faces significantly higher duties. For butter, the tariff is 298.5 %, and for fluid milk the tariff is 241 %.

The U.S., however, rarely hits these quotas — e.g., it’s below half the zero-tariff maximum for milk — meaning these high tariffs are seldom paid in practice.

Trump’s focus on this issue also reflects domestic political pressures. Dairy-heavy states like Wisconsin and New York, key in his electoral base, face overproduction and low prices, and farmers there see Canada’s protected market as a missed opportunity. Critics, including Canadian officials, counter that the U.S. also protects its dairy industry with subsidies and tariffs (e.g., up to 350 % on tobacco), and that Canada’s system prioritizes food security over export competition. Regardless, Trump’s rhetoric taps into a broader narrative of trade reciprocity, using dairy as a symbol of perceived exploitation by a close ally.

Osgoode dairy farmer Jeff Robinson said he worries more about President Trump and tariffs than he worries about his own government.

“Ever since the U.S. election back in the fall, I didn’t care what happened with our own government,” Robinson said. “I was more worried about over there because look how much it’s changed everything, how much of an impact.”

Robinson’s wife, Eleanor, agreed. “Trump. He’s our biggest worry. How does he do (what he does) … and what else is next? It’s somewhat scary. We try not to think about it and stay in our own little bubble, and hope he goes away. At some point, you also have to … prepare somehow. I don’t know how you prepare for it, but it’s definitely on your mind for sure.”

Bainsville dairy farmer Charles Osborne argues that President Trump’s influence is far-reaching.

“President Trump is disturbing the whole world,” Osborne told Farmers Forum. “ It’s too bad what’s going on. He threw on the tariff and they’ve got the tariff war going on. Everybody’s going to lose on it. He raises tariffs, and we raise tariffs, and we’ve got no more trade across the border. It’s not only the trade, it’s the relationship. That’s worse as far as I’m concerned, if you can’t talk to your neighbours. Enjoy your neighbours for gosh sakes. Life is too short.”