In most years it’s a bad idea to wait until harvest to market all of your crop, but 2020 has messed with even that conventional wisdom.
Corn, soybean and wheat prices have all been strong and the latest Farm Credit Forecast sees prices going even higher over the next six months. Soybeans and spring wheat are expected to be the strongest performers, hitting $494/tonne and $256/tonne respectively. Corn is also expected to keep climbing but more modestly, hitting a high of $213/tonne, which is still well above the five-year average of $190/tonne.
Syngenta noted last month that the USDA was predicting lower production and smaller ending stocks for corn, which had already resulted in a $0.40/bushel boost to the 2020-2021 crop price. With supply going down and usage going up, the forecast for ending stocks was 1.702 billion bushels, well below the market forecast of 2.048 billion.
But a price boost is no sure thing and will be counting on the following factors: that the U.S. stock-to-use corn yields will decline due to smaller-than-anticipated yields; that export demand increases, including increased demand from China as it rebuilds its hog herd; and that the ongoing global economic rebound doesn’t collapse under another wave of lockdowns.